NBA 2010-2011: "Bigger" Things Ahead for Celtics

I am, admittedly, a Celtics fan. A big fan. It can be scary at times. When Orlando knocked the Celtics out of the playoffs in 2009, I couldn't bring myself to turn the television off until it was finally over, but not being able to bear watching, I sat in the hall away from the screen and blocked my ears. That would be embarrassing if it hadn't been a playoff loss. Most Bostonians have the Red Sox first and foremost, but the Red Sox are not at the top of my list. The Celtics and Patriots tie the top of my chart, and so, there can be some extra emotion involved.

I do not consider myself an unrealistic fan however. I always thought they had the talent to get to the title game last year, but did not actually expect them to do it. Once they get into a series though, I have enough faith to believe they can beat anyone. That leads us to the point.

Last year the Celtics put together a mediocre regular season in opposition to their assemblage of talent, which would indicate a great regular season, as would the post season results. There were two messages there, the first being that luck plays a factor. They had some unlucky moments in the season, but also were lucky enough to make the playoffs despite a so-so year. Then their talent, experience, and determination took over and led them to the Finals. As much as it pain's me to say it, they lost to the better team. When the Celtics and Lakers played in 2008, the Lakers were not battle hardened. Their loss to the Celtics in that title series propelled them to develop their mental game, and led to the team that has won back to back titles. The Lakers and Celtics were both experienced winners last year, but the result came down to talent, and it was close enough that the absence of Kendrick Perkins and the great efforts of Pau Gasol decided the contest.

The Celtics were thisclose to winning, despite being nowhere near the team the Lakers were throughout the regular season, and an ineffective Kevin Garnett. Now, KG was still better to have than not to have, but as time has proven to us, many players that do return to the majority of their athletic ability after sustaining major injuries, do not do so quickly. Even in Boston, we saw how it truly took Tony Allen years to shed his doubts about injury concerns. I am no medical expert, but my following on sports has shown me that getting over an injury physically is a piece of the process. Working it back into the same shape, if possible, and trusting it the same are a different step.

Multiple reports this offseason have indicated that Kevin Garnett looks older...than 2008, yet younger than the KG 2009 and 2010 that we have seen. Consider that if his injury was still healing, playing upon it would have slowed the rest of the healing process. Also consider the trust and explosion factor, those concerns would not be eased upon his return, but upon gradually building himself back up. The rumors indicate that he has done that after a fully healthy offseason. Now, in thinking about having a KG closer to 2008 than '09 and '10, even just having that defensive presence, if the offense isn't the same, would be enough to make the Celtics a considerably better team than the one that played the Lakers in June. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen may be older, but Rajon Rondo is older and that is a plus. Rondo has stated to the media that his personal goal is to prove he is the best point guard in the league. Kendrick Perkins will return to health, and Glen Davis continues to mature. Nate Robinson and Marquis Daniels are back with more clearly defined roles and a sense of familiarity in the Boston structure.

In looking at the 2010-2011 roster, we must turn to what is different. Von Wafer, Mario West, and Stephane Lasme are all unknowns and may or may not make the roster, so we will put aside any ruminations on these players for now. The key perimeter additions to discuss are Delonte West and Avery Bradley. Bradley has been injured, and only played on year in college. The best insight on the rookie at this moment is that the kid has got some tools. He can shoot, he can really defend, and he is a good athlete. He is a huge unknown at the moment, but absolutely a player to watch and with considerable upside. Delonte West is a familiar face in Boston as he started his NBA career here and was a fan favorite almost instantly. D-West proved to us in his first stint that he is not truly a point guard or shooting guard, but an effective combination of skills held by both positions. He is a tough player to start because he does not excellently fill either of those jobs, but as a bench player he brings a lot to the table. There is no reason to doubt Delonte's basketball skills. Now is not the time to discuss his off the court issues, focusing instead on what he can bring, he is a gamer. He is a great competitor, plays tough defense, will go all out on every play, can hit the open jumper. Fortuitously, in addition to being a solid option at either guard spot, he is developing a good chemistry with Nate Robinson, also the possessor of a useful but somewhat eclectic skill set. Their games seem to mesh well and balance each other, indicating Boston could have a versatile dynamic duo of back up guards to help keep the pressure on opponents when Rondo sits.

Finally, there are "big" (pun intended) changes inside. This is, to me, the Celtics greatest improvement because I watched the Celtics struggle when KG and Perk were in foul trouble, and even Rasheed Wallace became important despite having a disappointment of a season. The Celtics have brought in much needed reinforcements, and may have really hit a home run with the effort. When last year there was only Glen Davis after the three aforementioned big men, the Celtics have four additional options this year. Yes, twice as many.

Youngsters Semih Erden and Luke Harangody wouldn't likely be much on their own, but have promise. We all know it can be tough to find decent big men, especially ones that are truly big, so all Celtics fans should be encouraged by the addition of Erden. Semih has been a topic of conversation in some of the Celtics fan basketball circles I've been trhough since he was drafted. The Turkish league is well established but remains a bit of a mystery to us. I have seen some Turkish fans believe Erden would struggle to be an NBA role player, but also some who felt he was the best young Turkish big man. Be prepared to be disappointed or surprised depending on what your hopes for him are. To me he looks like a solid contributor with a chance to develop into starting material. He is active and physical, with decent athleticism. He looks to be decently skilled, and a big man who can play like a big man but still has skill in his game is truly a rare commodity. Stardom is unlikely for Semih, but he can truly add to this team, especially if there is no rush for him to do so and he can just play a few minutes here and there. The desire is there for him, he gave up money to come to Boston, and it looks like their patience will pay off with Erden. Harangody is a tricky projection, but has exceeded expectations thus far. A great college player, there were questions about how his game would adapt. He is not the greatest athlete for a power forward, almost undersized, and many teams were unsure where he would fit. I see a guy who fits on the court. He may never score in the NBA like he did at Notre Dame, but he as more skill than many glue guys could ever hope to, and he seems to be excelling at doing the little things it takes for a tweener to fit in. He can rebound, and shoot, and has shown a willingness to play tough. The C's will take it.

Finally, the most significant additions. The Celtics are already bigger than they were last year. Harangody is only 6'8 but he is a burly man, and Erden is a legitimate seven footer. Kevin Garnett (secretly a seven footer is a mere .02 m shorter than Semih). The Celtics other two additions that beef up the front court are superstars Jermaine O'Neal (the same 6'11 as KG) and Shaquille O'Neal, a true monster addition at 7'1 and 325. Glen Davis and Kendrick Perkins are the next two heaviest Celtics, at 289 and 280 respectively. No one in their right mind will tell you that these are the O'Neals of their peaks, when JO was one of the most versatile bigs and Shaq was THE MAN in the NBA, and crushed all comers. These two men are still good basketball players however, and joining the C's both limits the weaknesses that have developed in their games and maximizes the pros of their games because they join a strong team and don't need to play alpha dog. JO has played with nagging injuries the last few years, a combination of reduced workload, claimed better health, and more talent around him means, if nothing else, he will be a far greater value for the Cs at the MLE than he was as a max player in recent seasons.

Shaq is the real wild card. This man is easily among the best players the NBA has ever seen. He is one of the greatest centers of all time, and must be included with the absolute best players like Russell and Chamberlain. They may in fact be the only two better players, there is some debate here, but not a lot. O'Neal's career has been that good. He is a lot older now than he was in his glory days, so obviously those kinds of games are not expected out of him. The word of caution here is, though, don't be surprised by O'Neal. He has never played on a team with this kind of talent. There is something to the fact that all this talent is accumulated in Boston, even if it is all dusted with age. He may have more fun this season than ever before, because of the fellows he is playing with in Pierce, KG, Allen, and JO, guys who were big stars in O'Neal's hey day, and he will have the least weight on his shoulders he has ever had. It may just be speculation on my part, but the general feeling is that Shaq has big shoulders, if all the weight that has been on them is taken off, he may be able to produce more than with the extra weight there. Also, expect motivation from Shaq due to his long running legendary personal feud with Kobe Bryant. Now Kobe has more rings than Shaq and whispers are that it doesn't sit well with the big fella.

This Celtics team has added both youth and experience. On paper it is deeper and far more balanced. The true story will be told on the court, but don't sleep on these Celtics. They went about as far as possible with less ammunition last year.

Tight End Packages

A trend we have seen develop over the course of the season has been the increased usage and growth of the young tight ends. Alge Crumpler doesn't need much to be said for his game. Anyone who appreciates good football notices Crumpler contributions. A consummate professional, a strong blocker, a team leader, a smart player with great hands. It's true the athleticism is somewhat in decline but the hands don't go away.

The young players add immense depth and flexibility to what the Patriots can do out on the field. Benjamin Watson was a solid player for New England but inconsistent, and the position lacked depth. Now, New England can legitimately put out a three tight end package for power running or match up problems in the passing game, or throw out a variety of two TE sets. Gronkowski and Hernandez both possess great athletic abilities. Gronkowski also has great size and power. Hernandez has shown us he can play a wide out's game, and even lined up in the offensive backfield. Hernandez will never be quite the blocker Gronkowski is at their main position, but the advantage Hernandez has lined up in the slot, out wide, or out of the backfield are huge.

These two are still young, and have a lot to learn. Seeing the contributions they are already making, while learning, and the application of the physical talents they hold on field, the pre-draft conversation on the upside of these players is proving true. Gronkowski's size and strength makes him difficult for anyone to contend with, and Hernandez has already been the author of most of the Patriots long passing plays. Watch the Patriots offense become harder to contain and more diverse as they grow this year.

Patriots 2011 Early Draft Picks Recap

Here is where the Pats stand as of now for the upcoming draft's early portion.

1st Round
1st Round (OAK – Richard Seymour)
2nd Round (CAR – 2010 3rd Round)
2nd Round
3rd Round (MIN – Randy Moss)
3rd Round
4th Round


Note: The Patriots deal for Deion Branch gives the Seahawks the higher of the two fourth round picks the Patriots own the rights to, the second pick coming to New England via the Laurence Maroney trade with Denver.


In my opinion, considering the depth the Pats have begun to rebuild, and the talent shaping up for the early parts of the upcoming draft, they are putting themselves in a great position to reload further this offseason. Draft projections at this point are always rough due to the age of the college season, the importance of offseason pre draft activities, interviews, and most importantly individual team's requirements.


Nonetheless it is looking good for New England.

Patriot Games

On the surface, it seems for the most part the New England Patriots traded one receiver, and traded for another. The story is not nearly that simple. There is a lot of information to digest here underneath the surface, touching the Patriots offense, players, draft, and Minnesota Vikings.

The first point here, which to me truly seems the most important, is how it ties to the draft. The Patriots build their team for the present and future concurrently, so depending on where the greater value lies, you will see the team make both decisions that hurt the team in the short term to benefit the long (trading Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders for a draft pick two years in the future) and decisions to benefit the short term against the long term interests (the most recent move, trading a 2011 fourth round draft choice to the Seattle Seahawks for Deion Branch). Value is always the key for Bill Belichick. When questioned, and criticized by some, for trading a 2011 7th rounder for offensive lineman Quinn Ojinnaka and receiving basically nothing in return as far as on field contributions, Belichick described their thought process as feeling that the depth provided by Ojinnaka's mere presence was worthwhile. He had not contributed much, but they may have needed him, and having not had his presence would have been the far greater negative.

What this tells me about the upcoming draft, or at least the way it projects now, is that the third round is where the Patriots expect the premier talent to run out. For example, Aaron Hernandez. drafted this past year by the Patriots, has been a huge contributor so far and looks to be one of the better offensive rookies. His value has been so great he is actually a factor in the dimished role of Randy Moss in the Patriots offense. Hernandez was available in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. Belichick has also gone on record comparing the value of this past draft to previous drafts, saying some players in the sixth and seventh round of the 2010 draft board had grades that compared with players in the third and fourth rounds of some classes. The point is that the draft is an imperfect science. Players will fall through the cracks invariably that should not, though that does not prevent a draft class from having a basic turning point where the legitimately projectable prospects begin to run out.

Randy Moss is still an impact player in the NFL. It was reported in the off season that he was coming into camp in fantastic shape. He expected to make a big impact. For a number of reasons, some which we can only speculate, that did not happen in New England and has not happened through one game in Minnesota. Moss complained about a lack of balls being thrown his way through the first quarter of the year by Tom Brady, but having watched those games I can tell you Randy did not catch a high enough percentage of the passes thrown his way and had several balls off of his hands. There is an old John Madden adage that states, loosely worded, if the ball hits you in the hands you should be catching it. There were also other players making plays in New England. New England will certainly miss the deep threat provided by Randy Moss, and it is certainly my personal belief that Randy Moss is the greatest deep receiver the NFL has seen, and absolutely that is the case in my time as an NFL fan. There is more to playing wideout than just running deep, and while Randy worked hard at that aspect of the offense in New England, there wasn't much happening for him this year. In all honesty, the Patriots are certainly less talented on offense, but may be more balanced with Deion Branch installed as the veteran outside presence than Moss.

Branch may have some brushing up to do, and is not in quite the athletic shape Moss is, but knows how to play every receiver spot in the Patriots offense, which will only add to their versatility. Branch can still go long, so the concerns that the Patriots were left without a proven deep threat with Moss gone, are eased somewhat. Also, there are many instances in which the star power of Moss could result in a negative. Tom Brady's belief in Randy Moss was so strong that he would force throws to Randy that he would never force to another receiver. You could say that Moss brought out some Brett Favre riverboat gambler in Brady. Anyone who watches the Patriots will remember the deep bomb in 2007 against the Dolphons where Randy was double covered in the end zone and, with the defensive backs draped all over him, still came down with the jump ball reception. Amazing. Don't you think that would stick in Tom's mind too? And as good as his judgement is, it might be hard to shake his faith in Randy, but that just leads to too many questionable calls to be quality ball control.

Ball control was always the key for the great Patriots teams. New England thrived off of playing smart and safe with the ball, running down the clock, and playing tough on defense. They only became more dominant as they added the big play ability through Brady's improvement and the addition of more talented players. When the base characteristics began to fade though, the Patriots foundations thinned, especially as keystone players moved on.

Where does this leave the Patriots for now? In a position to exert far better ball control. The stable of running backs is producing well, and the pseudo-running game created by the short passes the Pats have used to move the chains since Tom Brady was considered a game manager are primed to return in greater fashion with the skill set held by the current receiving corps. Not to be overlooked is the TE position. Rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez ooze potential and playmaking ability. Hernandez has lined up at every offensive spot except for quarterback and the line. Gronkowski looks like one of the linemen and moves nearly as well as Hernandez. Combining the young studs with vet Alge Crumpler and it is understandable why the revamped TE grouping has been a revelation and two and three TE sets have returned in force and flourished. This is part of the reason why Randy Moss's role decreased, and part of the solution.

The Patriots can now play with greater ball control, a more physical identity on offense, and more power in the running game. This switch started when the Patriots were lucky enough to trade up for Gronkowski and have Hernandez fall to the fourth round. The trade of Randy Moss only accelerates the process and facilitates a mental adjustment to the new identity. The time of possession should increase, and ease the pressure on the young defense as well. Not because of the change of the level of talent, but the change in strategy, the Patriots will benefit from this move. Now, in season, and in the third round of the 2011 draft, because Randy Moss would not have been in New England next year.