The first point here, which to me truly seems the most important, is how it ties to the draft. The Patriots build their team for the present and future concurrently, so depending on where the greater value lies, you will see the team make both decisions that hurt the team in the short term to benefit the long (trading Richard Seymour to the Oakland Raiders for a draft pick two years in the future) and decisions to benefit the short term against the long term interests (the most recent move, trading a 2011 fourth round draft choice to the Seattle Seahawks for Deion Branch). Value is always the key for Bill Belichick. When questioned, and criticized by some, for trading a 2011 7th rounder for offensive lineman Quinn Ojinnaka and receiving basically nothing in return as far as on field contributions, Belichick described their thought process as feeling that the depth provided by Ojinnaka's mere presence was worthwhile. He had not contributed much, but they may have needed him, and having not had his presence would have been the far greater negative.
What this tells me about the upcoming draft, or at least the way it projects now, is that the third round is where the Patriots expect the premier talent to run out. For example, Aaron Hernandez. drafted this past year by the Patriots, has been a huge contributor so far and looks to be one of the better offensive rookies. His value has been so great he is actually a factor in the dimished role of Randy Moss in the Patriots offense. Hernandez was available in the fourth round of the 2010 draft. Belichick has also gone on record comparing the value of this past draft to previous drafts, saying some players in the sixth and seventh round of the 2010 draft board had grades that compared with players in the third and fourth rounds of some classes. The point is that the draft is an imperfect science. Players will fall through the cracks invariably that should not, though that does not prevent a draft class from having a basic turning point where the legitimately projectable prospects begin to run out.
Randy Moss is still an impact player in the NFL. It was reported in the off season that he was coming into camp in fantastic shape. He expected to make a big impact. For a number of reasons, some which we can only speculate, that did not happen in New England and has not happened through one game in Minnesota. Moss complained about a lack of balls being thrown his way through the first quarter of the year by Tom Brady, but having watched those games I can tell you Randy did not catch a high enough percentage of the passes thrown his way and had several balls off of his hands. There is an old John Madden adage that states, loosely worded, if the ball hits you in the hands you should be catching it. There were also other players making plays in New England. New England will certainly miss the deep threat provided by Randy Moss, and it is certainly my personal belief that Randy Moss is the greatest deep receiver the NFL has seen, and absolutely that is the case in my time as an NFL fan. There is more to playing wideout than just running deep, and while Randy worked hard at that aspect of the offense in New England, there wasn't much happening for him this year. In all honesty, the Patriots are certainly less talented on offense, but may be more balanced with Deion Branch installed as the veteran outside presence than Moss.
Branch may have some brushing up to do, and is not in quite the athletic shape Moss is, but knows how to play every receiver spot in the Patriots offense, which will only add to their versatility. Branch can still go long, so the concerns that the Patriots were left without a proven deep threat with Moss gone, are eased somewhat. Also, there are many instances in which the star power of Moss could result in a negative. Tom Brady's belief in Randy Moss was so strong that he would force throws to Randy that he would never force to another receiver. You could say that Moss brought out some Brett Favre riverboat gambler in Brady. Anyone who watches the Patriots will remember the deep bomb in 2007 against the Dolphons where Randy was double covered in the end zone and, with the defensive backs draped all over him, still came down with the jump ball reception. Amazing. Don't you think that would stick in Tom's mind too? And as good as his judgement is, it might be hard to shake his faith in Randy, but that just leads to too many questionable calls to be quality ball control.
Ball control was always the key for the great Patriots teams. New England thrived off of playing smart and safe with the ball, running down the clock, and playing tough on defense. They only became more dominant as they added the big play ability through Brady's improvement and the addition of more talented players. When the base characteristics began to fade though, the Patriots foundations thinned, especially as keystone players moved on.
Where does this leave the Patriots for now? In a position to exert far better ball control. The stable of running backs is producing well, and the pseudo-running game created by the short passes the Pats have used to move the chains since Tom Brady was considered a game manager are primed to return in greater fashion with the skill set held by the current receiving corps. Not to be overlooked is the TE position. Rookies Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez ooze potential and playmaking ability. Hernandez has lined up at every offensive spot except for quarterback and the line. Gronkowski looks like one of the linemen and moves nearly as well as Hernandez. Combining the young studs with vet Alge Crumpler and it is understandable why the revamped TE grouping has been a revelation and two and three TE sets have returned in force and flourished. This is part of the reason why Randy Moss's role decreased, and part of the solution.
The Patriots can now play with greater ball control, a more physical identity on offense, and more power in the running game. This switch started when the Patriots were lucky enough to trade up for Gronkowski and have Hernandez fall to the fourth round. The trade of Randy Moss only accelerates the process and facilitates a mental adjustment to the new identity. The time of possession should increase, and ease the pressure on the young defense as well. Not because of the change of the level of talent, but the change in strategy, the Patriots will benefit from this move. Now, in season, and in the third round of the 2011 draft, because Randy Moss would not have been in New England next year.
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